The Great Orbital Economy: Who will own the Sky?

The private space industry is entering a multi-trillion-dollar era. Experts now forecast the space economy reaching on the order of $1 to 2 trillion by 2035. For investors, this raises the question: who will capture that value? The shift is from one-off tech demos to commercial networks and platforms. Much like the internet boom, the earliest movers laying down infrastructure may dominate the market. Below, we examine key strategic themes, not by gadget or rocket type, but by the fundamental business models and moats that will ‘own the sky.’

The New Monopolies in Orbit

Space around Earth is finite, and the first movers are claiming the bulk of it. SpaceX’s Starlink has launched roughly 10,000 satellites, enough to serve millions of users and effectively give one firm control of the LEO broadband market. That footprint means that a single company now accounts for two-thirds of the satellites that are in space right now. Starlink’s scale advantage is no accident: SpaceX vertically integrates rockets, satellite design, and ground systems, slashing costs and execution time. With such integration and volume, it’s far cheaper per kilogram to build and launch each satellite than it is for potential rivals. Investors should note that these constellations create winner-take-most dynamics. The first network to blanket a market (broadband, earth imaging, IoT connectivity, etc.) can lock in customers and pricing power. In practical terms, the companies with the largest constellations and tightly controlled supply chains are building monopolistic moats in orbit.

Platforms Over Payloads

Rather than betting on single-use space technologies, the smarter play is to back infrastructure platforms that serve many users. For example, Loft Orbital is not a satellite manufacturer, but a hosted payload service: it builds satellites that can carry a mix of other companies’ instruments. Loft recently raised $170 million in a Series C, touting that it has clocked ‘$500 million of lifetime bookings’ on only $160 million of capital. Its existing fleet of five satellites already hosts payloads for 25+ customers. In other words, Loft sells space-as-a-service: clients upload software to Loft’s platforms instead of investing in their own spacecraft.

Similarly, space logistics and ‘space cloud’ platforms are emerging. Startups like Impulse Space and Catalyx Space are building reusable orbital infrastructure. Impulse Space (founded by a SpaceX propulsion engineer) is creating in-space tugs and ‘orbital railroads’ to move or refuel satellites. Catalyx, backed by Outlander VC’s $5.4 million seed round, is developing a capsule delivery/reentry system for cargo and manufactured goods. Catalyx’s CEO says their goal is to make ‘orbit as accessible and programmable as the cloud,’ enabling rapid upmass/downmass for industries like manufacturing and biopharma.

By contrast, startups that build one-off satellites or components may struggle to achieve scale. I’d imagine investors will be drawn to companies that scale through shared platforms, similar to how cloud computing or telecom networks grow on Earth. Each new customer or payload could add value with little extra cost, creating a compounding network effect in orbit.

The Next Orbital Gold Rush

Beyond networks, entirely new industries are emerging because of space. Think of it as the orbital gold rush: high-margin niches enabled only in microgravity or vacuum. One obvious area is in-space manufacturing. Companies like BESXAR are developing orbital foundries that harness microgravity and vacuum conditions to manufacture semiconductors and ultra-pure materials with precision impossible on Earth. This could redefine how critical technologies are produced, making space a superior manufacturing environment rather than just an alternative.

In parallel, biotechnology in space is gaining traction: Varda Space has raised $187 million to produce pharmaceuticals in orbit. It has already completed multiple microgravity crystallization missions and is moving toward a fleet of production capsules. Space experiments have shown that gravity-free protein crystallization can vastly improve drug formulations.

Other gold-rush include coupling space-based data with AI/analytics. One strategy is building the compute infrastructure in orbit. YC-backed Starcloud raised over $10 million to create solar-powered data centers in LEO. It plans to deploy satellites with massive solar arrays and liquid-cooled AI chips, cutting energy costs by 95% compared to Earth-bound data centers. Starcloud’s orbital servers run AI where the data is born, turning raw satellite feeds into real-time intelligence before they ever reach the ground.

These areas are capital-intensive and far from revenue today, but they offer massive multipliers on success. Much like Silicon Valley chip startups or biotech in the 1970s, the early leaders here could lock in proprietary know-how and volume before the competition even arrives. It’s reasonable to suggest that investor interest will gravitate toward platform enablers, for instance, orbital manufacturing plants and automated biofab facilities, that can serve as shared infrastructure for high-value customers as these industries evolve.

Owning the Sky Means Owning the Network

At root, ‘owning the sky’ comes down to who controls the platform. Whether through access, production, or processing, the companies building seamless, end-to-end orbital ecosystems will define and profit from the next economy in space. We’ve seen on Earth how carriers and big tech grew into monopolies by controlling network effects; the same logic applies in space. Starlink is a textbook example: by owning both rockets and satellites, SpaceX cut out middlemen and now sells bandwidth on a global subscription basis. Its network is integrated (user terminals link directly to LEO satellites), so each new satellite launch multiplies coverage, which in turn attracts more customers and revenue, a classic 'flywheel' effect.

For investors, this means looking at the layer that ties it all together: ground stations, inter-satellite links, data hubs, and constellation operators. A startup ‘orbital network provider’ or a global monitoring network can charge per bit or per use, locking in customers. Contrast that with a one-off small-satellite venture: networks confer recurring revenue and market power. In practice, then, the sky will be owned by whoever controls the connectivity backbone and the data pipelines. This is why smart capital is flowing not just into shiny rockets, but into companies stitching up the orbital net.

Like Jensen Huang has done with NVIDIA, the biggest winners in the orbital gold rush may be those who build the picks and shovels, not the miners themselves. In space, that means companies creating the underlying compute, connectivity, and manufacturing platforms that others depend on. Whether it’s launch providers, in-orbit foundries, or orbital data centers, these platform builders will form the backbone of the space economy. They won’t just chase opportunity, they’ll enable it, earning durable returns as space becomes the next great platform economy.